Clandestine 1: The chance of losing when that one man left got hit was about 5%. Once your opponent had closed his home table with the spare men on the high points he had 8% or so chance of winning. It seems surprisingly high given that you have only one man left but you have to bear in mind that getting that man off the bar, around the tables and off the board requires 25 pips, which is 3 average rolls of 8.2 pips each, and that only starts when you get in. As your luck shows, that can be just too little, too late.