BIG BAD WOLF: I thought of that myself. Without making a hugely complicated model taking spin into account and just using gravity it would be 50/50 as the pegs would remove the lateral move ment when the piece squezzed between them. In real life spin would have a much greater effect as this would not be entirely removed by the pegs. It would however be altered.

playBunny: I agrea that we may want to play with the odds. I just thought the game up while on a walk as far as I know it does not exist in reality so we would need to figure what makes the game the most fun but also involving some skill.