Czuch: i think his double was a good one to offer .. and you were good to decline

he is trailing, and you only need 1 point .. so he could have offered the double on the first move in that game, but he could also wait for a position like this and hope you might accept where you should not have ..

he can hit you, and he has 1 single in his home, but so you do .. i think he is slightly the favorite ..

but dont put too much value into what i write .. i am just a beginner who plays by feeling, and not by any real analysis :)

Hrqls: Thanks! Anyone else got some helpful opinion?

Czuch: I agree with those who've stated that your opponent should have doubled at every opportunity at this match score, beginning with their very first turn.  Each opportunity they missed was a mistake.  At this point--now that they've gained just a single point--they should be thinking: "If only I had doubled sooner, and my opponent had taken!  If I'd won, I'd only have been 2 points away from victory--and that would have meant my only needing to win 1 more game, because I'll double immediately in the next game, too."

I believe that you were correct to pass when you did, Czuch.  At that point, your opponent was about a 60% favorite to win the game.  You must also consider the relatively few--but exceedingly painful--gammon losses that could instantly lose the match with the cube on 2.  All considered, it's a bit too much risk for you to be taking.  By passing, you only allow your opponent's match winning chances to creep up slightly--from 31% when this game began, to 32.26% now that the match score has reached 3 away / 1 away.  You're not sacrificing much by doing that.