Iamon lyme:

I was away a couple of days. I can finally sit down and reply.

> So here's an interesting question... In light of those stats (I believe they are
> accurate) how popular do you believe Reagan would be today compared to how
> popular he was with voters during his tenure? It seems to me he would have
> been no more popular among voters today than Romney was.


This is a very interesting question. Reagan's era was very different. Reagan first attempted to be president in 1976. He lost the Republican primaries to Gerald Ford, but 1976 set him up to become the main Republican candidate in 1980.

In 1980 he won with 51% of the vote compares to Jimmy Carter's 41%. Voter turnout was really low that year, only 53% of the electorate voted. Reagan was helped by the Iran hostage crisis, rising interest rates that were crippling the economy, and the perception that he could be a Republican capable of mending the rift caused by the aftermath of the Watergate scandal. During his tenure Reagan became very popular with both Republicans and Democrats. In 1984 Reagan was reelected with 58.8 % of the vote copared to Walter Mondale's 40.6% (voter turnout was again only 53%). This clearly shows Reagan's appeal across the aisle and across party lines.

In our modern era Reagan probably would not have suceeded during the primaries. Reagan has the distinction of being the only American president to be divorced. In 1948 his first wife, Jane Wyman, divorced him. Four years later he married actress Nancy Davis (born Anne Frances Robbins), who became the first lady. There was nothing inappropriate about his divorce and second marriage, but in our present era it is quite possible that he would have been taken apart and his private life would have been used to sink him. Such is the nasty nature of politics in the mass media era. I don't think that religion would have affected his chances. He was raised a Catholic, but was baptized into the Disciples of Christ (a protestant church with a Congregational and Presbyterian polity).

We must also look at the nature of the modern electorate. These days minorites have gained a lot of political clout, as have women. The general perception is that Reagan used veiled allusion to race and state's rights as a way to court the seggregationist vote in the South (the so-called Dixiecrats). Reagan also attempted to dismantle government programs aimed at ensuring civil rights and welfare for the poor. Reagan was accused of policies that contributed to racism and increasing racial tensions. Whether those accusation are warranted is a matter of debate, but in our modern era Reagan would have been taken apart on racial issues and that 28% of the vote represented by minorities would not have gone his way. Regan has also been the called the "most anti-women president of the 20th century". I saw a claim that said that sexual discrimination claims increased 25% in the 1980s. I think Reagan would have failed to garner the female vote.

All in all I think that his great appeal and political qualities would have made him as popular as Romney, but he would have lost the election too because the demographics of the vote have changed so much.