a blot on 18 is bad, but what if my opponent rolls 6+1, he will make the 18 point no matter what, so missing those 7 steps and being send to the bar with his home open isnt that bad, but i will have a chance to grab the 18 point if he doesnt roll 6+1 (or 3+3) and i will roll a 6 (or 5+1, 4+2, 3+3)
i dont understand much about going for gammon or gammon save .. the only part i see (so far) is that with gammon save you have to escape with your backmen, and with gammon go you will have to block your home :)