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4. 一月 2009, 12:58:22
Constellation36 
题目: Re:
coan.net: Too bad none of the tips could have helped me out in this game: Fevga (Albaowl vs. coan.net)

Oh my goodness!!!!!!!! That is the definition of "bad luck".

By calculating only your rolls(as calculating opponents rolls is a bit more tiresome and i'm lazy) the probability NOT to enter opponents board is:
0.047% or 1 out of 2115.

So the probability to enter opponents home(so you will be free to play later) is 99.95% or 2114 out of 2115.

And notice that the above do not take into account opponent's rolls, a thing that would actually increase your probabilities to enter.

So it's like you had a bag with 2114 white balls and only 1 red ball and you have chosen the red ball!
And note again that i have not taken into consideration the opponent's rolls that i guess would increase this probability to enter by a factor of 10(21139 out of 21140).

So many years i'm playing this game only once i have faced this situation and i was in the bright side, which means i forced my opponent not to be able to play at all.
And now i see it again.

Also notice what i've said a few lines before in this topic. In Greece we allow doubles in the starting roll for Fevga in contrast with what Brainking does. So there are 5 more cases(22,33,44,55,66) where one can advance high enough to enter opponents home or anyway to take the 12-point which is the key to avoid such position as then he will always have the change to so this can't happen.
So once again i will repeat that it is better if doubles will be allowed in the starting roll.

Of course what happened to you is extremely rare(writing a Monte Carlo based program to play millions of random rolls would easily show how exactly are the odds) and by allowing starting roll doubles becomes even more rare.

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