BrainKing - 讨论板 (Backgammon)

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4. 十一月 2009, 01:25:58

pedestrian

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题目: Re: Bias

alanback: I just checked a small, random sample of games: the 13 games (or matches) of regular Backgammon played by alanback in 2009. Out of these 13, 6 games start with identical rolls by black and white.

I know, it's hardly conclusive. But still interesting.

4. 十一月 2009, 02:04:34

pgt

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题目: Re: Bias

pedestrian: I just did the same exercise on currently open games and 7 out of 15 had identical rolls for the first move

4. 十一月 2009, 02:22:04

grenv

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题目: Re: Bias

pgt: Just to be clear... is the suspected behaviour that the first move for each player is the same? So if I roll a 3-1 so does my opponent?

If so I checked my last 7 games and didn't find it at all...

Expected would be 1 in 9?

4. 十一月 2009, 02:25:50

AbigailII

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题目: Re: Bias

grenv: No, expected would be 1 in 18. The first player doesn't roll a double, which means that out of all the 36 possible rolls of the second player, only 2 match the roll of the first player.

4. 十一月 2009, 02:37:23

grenv

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题目: Re: Bias

AbigailII: Ok, but if you take out the doubles, there are only 30 possible rolls I guess... right? so 1 in 15 then?

that makes sense... first die 2 in 6, second 1 in 5... 3x5 = 15

4. 十一月 2009, 09:27:53

AbigailII

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题目: Re: Bias

grenv: Ok, but if you take out the doubles, there are only 30 possible rolls

But why do you take out the doubles? The second player can roll a double, so the second player has 36 different rolls. 2 of them can match the rolls of the first player.

4. 十一月 2009, 02:30:52

AbigailII

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题目: Re: Bias

pgt: Of my current open backgammon games, 6 out of 10 had identical rolls for both players.