Přihlašovací jméno: Heslo:
Registrace nového uživatele
Moderátor: SueQ , coan.net 
 Backgammon

Backgammon and variants.

Backgammon Links


Počet zpráv na stránce:
Seznam diskusních klubů
Není vám dovoleno psát zprávy do tohoto klubu. Minimální úroveň členství vyžadovaná pro psaní v tomto klubu je Brain pěšec.
Mód: Každý může psát
Hledat v příspěvcích:  

4. listopadu 2009, 04:02:28
playBunny 
Subjekt: Re: Bias
pedestrian: I also did a very quick check using alanback's 21-pointer against furbster. It was the first and only match that I looked at.

Of the 12 games in the match, 5 started with the same roll for each player, although the order of the numbers was different in 3.

Game 1   61, 46
Game 2   23, 42
Game 3   12, 31
Game 4   14, 51
Game 5   13, 31
Game 6   45, 54
Game 7   15, 51
Game 8   41, 42
Game 9   41, 41
Game 10   13, 41
Game 11   65, 63
Game 12   31, 31

If it's coincidence then it certainly seems to be one that can be found without much effort.

ps. Abigail's right about the odds. It doesn't matter what the first roll is, the chances of the second matching it are dependant on the 36 possibilities for that second roll.

4. listopadu 2009, 06:02:49
grenv 
Subjekt: Re: Bias
playBunny: oops, second roll can be doubles... gotta get some sleep.

4. listopadu 2009, 10:39:10
Resher 
Subjekt: Re: Bias
playBunny: The reported order of the numbers within a roll isn't relevant is it?  Doesn't this just depend on whether a player swapped the numbers before using them?

I also checked my most recent two 21-pointers and found 6 out of 17 same initial rolls for both matches, so 35% compared with an expected percentage of less than 6% if they were independent.  I think this is statistically significant and wonder whether there is some circumstance where the first two dice rolls are determined at the same time (and so would always be the same), rather than when each player clicks on the game at different times?

4. listopadu 2009, 17:42:53
grenv 
Subjekt: Re: Bias
Resher: If both numbers were generated at the same time, wouldn't you expect 100%..? To what do we attribute what is being seen.

Datum a čas
Přátelé on-line
Oblíbené kluby
Společenstva
Tip dne
Copyright © 2002 - 2024 Filip Rachůnek, všechna práva vyhrazena.
Zpět na vrchol