coan.net: Interesting. Two more points: if you go first, and you decide to shoot, you don't have a 'safe' shot, there's always the chance to hit something. Making your first action a guess doesn't give your opponent a field he can shoot knowing there's no frog there.

But here's another thing. Say starting with a guess would be a good thing. Then, wouldn't it be good for the player going second to start with a guess as well? But if both players start with a guess, followed by a shot on their guess, what about their third moves? Shouldn't that be a guess too?