That is the thing I noticed about one of the top players - I started to watch all their moves, to see how I could improve my game. For the first 5 moves or so, their bid were always higher then mine - nothing that would get them the bonus, but enough to start putting them further down the list.

Then all of a sudden, Boom - there they were at the end challenging for the win.

So yes, taking big chances may increase your chance to win - but I've noticed being nice and stedy - no real big chances will leave you with much beter chances of wins at the end. (in which my rate of wins has been increasing some I believe - took me forever to get to ten, and now all of a sudden I'm getting close to 20)