I´m glad you didn´t even got close to my explanation, regarding the example you mention due to the totally unexpected timing out by pauloaguia in *9, my formula loses credibility, added to the fact of so much disparity in the previous round´s bets, so you must rely only on the previous sum, as was pointed in my explanation when I said: ¨..., which uses last 3 bets (or 2 when the 3rd one is unavailable because of timing out)...¨
Sometimes on such a situation I try to make an educated ¨guess¨ as I failed frequently in the past (and my student also failed in this one, as a prove!), but this time knowing she would use the formula as stated I took profit.