I think BG Race would have the least amount of "luck" since you can make your own strategy of weather to try to make a "block" to keep your opponenet from advancing, or trying to "race" quickly to the other side, or keep some pieces on the bar to keep your opponenet from advancing too quickly to your home area - just so many more options and strategies to choose from allow you to quickly adapt to good/bad dice rolls.
(hide) If you want to play a game with an opponent of a similar level, you can define a required BKR range for a new game invitation. Then nobody with a BKR outside this range will be able to see/accept it. (Katechka) (show all tips)