Hrqls: These are the GnuBg rollouts. According to these, making the 2-point is a doubtful move and the standard drop-and-split is the best for the non-gammon situation and second best even in gammon-save! But in the gammon-go situation the 2-point comes to the fore.

Double match point. Gammons don't matter to either side.

#. Move _________ Win __ W.G __ W.Bg __ Lose __ L.G ___ L.Bg ___ Equity
1. 24/18 13/9 ____ 50.9% _ 20.6% _ 2.7% ... 49.1% _ 19.7% _ 2.8% ... +0.018
2. 24/14 _________ 50.5% _ 17.1% _ 2.5% ... 49.5% _ 17.4% _ 1.9% ... +0.010 (-0.008)
3. 8/2 6/2 _______ 49.4% _ 22.5% _ 3.6% ... 50.6% _ 18.9% _ 2.0% ... -0.012 (-0.030)
4. 24/20 24/18 ___ 49.1% _ 17.5% _ 2.0% ... 50.9% _ 18.8% _ 2.3% ... -0.019 (-0.037)
5. 24/20 13/7 ____ 48.9% _ 19.0% _ 2.4% ... 51.1% _ 20.1% _ 3.3% ... -0.022 (-0.040)

Error: ___________ 0.3% __ 0.6% _ 0.3% ..._ 0.3% __ 0.6% _ 0.4% ..._ 0.006


1-away, 5-away. Gammon-Save for the leader.

#. Move _________ Win __ W.G __ W.Bg __ Lose __ L.G ___ L.Bg ___ Equity
1. 24/14 _________ 50.1% _ 19.5% _ 2.9% ... 49.9% _ 13.1% _ 0.3% ... -0.202
2. 24/18 13/9 ____ 49.7% _ 21.0% _ 3.3% ... 50.3% _ 13.7% _ 0.4% ... -0.222 (-0.019)
3. 8/2 6/2 _______ 49.3% _ 22.4% _ 4.0% ... 50.7% _ 14.0% _ 0.5% ... -0.235 (-0.032)
4. 24/20 13/7 ____ 47.9% _ 19.4% _ 2.6% ... 52.1% _ 13.0% _ 0.4% ... -0.249 (-0.046)
5. 24/20 24/18 ___ 48.6% _ 18.2% _ 2.9% ... 51.4% _ 14.1% _ 0.5% ... -0.253 (-0.050)

Error: ____________ 0.2% __ 0.6% _ 0.3% ..._ 0.2% __ 0.2% _ 0.1% ..._ 0.006


5-away, 1-away. Gammon-Go for the trailer.

#. Move _________ Win __ W.G __ W.Bg __ Lose __ L.G ___ L.Bg ___ Equity
1. 8/2 6/2 ______ 50.3% _ 15.6% _ 0.4% ... 49.7% _ 18.3% _ 2.5% ... +0.245
2. 24/18 13/9 ___ 51.2% _ 13.0% _ 0.4% ... 48.8% _ 20.6% _ 2.3% ... +0.231 (-0.013)
3. 24/14 ________ 51.1% _ 11.4% _ 0.4% ... 48.9% _ 19.5% _ 2.1% ... +0.207 (-0.037)
4. 24/20 13/7 ___ 49.5% _ 13.1% _ 0.5% ... 50.5% _ 21.3% _ 3.8% ... +0.198 (-0.047)
5. 13/9 13/7 ____ 48.5% _ 14.1% _ 0.4% ... 51.5% _ 23.2% _ 4.9% ... +0.190 (-0.055)

Error: ___________ 0.2% __ 0.2% _ 0.1% ..._ 0.2% __ 0.6% _ 0.4% ..._ 0.006


Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen.
Seed 985902322 and quasi-random dice.
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

(I made a mistake when doing the gammon-go rollouts in that I forgot to set the Crawford-game flag. It's thus calculated as if the cube were live for the trailer. But that's fair enough if you think of it as a 7-pointer and the trailer has won the Crawford game.)