There is no formula. I have recently got to 5 or so "ponds" where there were only 4 or 5 players left. I have bid considerably less than the other players, who have "ALL" bid similar amounts. The majority of these Ponds, Pedro was in.
I lost because of a lack of experience at that stage - not because Pedro (or anyone else) was using some make-believe formula.
I have shared a number of discussions with Pedro, and not once has he ever mentioned any formula, even offered advice (relating to a "formula") or done anything that could harm his good name.
I would have no hesitation in laying my reputaion down that Pedro (as well as BBW, Vikings, Czuch, etc etc etc) are simply good pond players who know what sort of amounts to bet at the right time.
I've seen ponds where Pedro has fallen at position 10 (or so) out of 16 !!.
The whole talk of secret formula's is garbage in my opinion, and it's about time this whole nonsense discussion was dropped.