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alanback: I just checked a small, random sample of games: the 13 games (or matches) of regular Backgammon played by alanback in 2009. Out of these 13, 6 games start with identical rolls by black and white.
I know, it's hardly conclusive. But still interesting.
grenv: No, expected would be 1 in 18. The first player doesn't roll a double, which means that out of all the 36 possible rolls of the second player, only 2 match the roll of the first player.
grenv: Ok, but if you take out the doubles, there are only 30 possible rolls
But why do you take out the doubles? The second player can roll a double, so the second player has 36 different rolls. 2 of them can match the rolls of the first player.