Czuch: Logic is good when it comes to computers, it is not always a successful answer when dealing with people, as you are dealing with a being, whether awake or asleep you are still dealing with a being who by the very nature of being a being is not a purely logical entity. If you (like I have) studied some statistics regarding error factors and such when it comes to the likes of polls, you'd know that the figures are not perfect. When it comes to humans you also have to consider that empirical experience will lead to people reacting in different ways, the weather, if they've had a bad day or not, financial problems, etc, etc, etc. Then there are the regional and country variations based on culture, education, peer pressure, genetics, etc, etc.

So to logically think about people and certain situations you'd have to keep this all in mind at the same time. Basically the only thing that can do that now is an Entity as we have not yet being able to create a machine with true AI.

As for gut, that's a good thing, following your beliefs whether correct or not is fine, but you must keep in mind that we are a developing creature by nature of our creation, we are not constant.