Hrqls: I'd have to see the board position to know what I'd have done in your game but generally I wouldn't offer a double if I thought the game were balanced. One of the considerations in offering a double is how you'd feel if it were taken. If you'd groan and say "Oh, no!" then it's not perhaps a good time to double.

But if your "hoping he would decline" is based on knowing his bravery and style, and has more expectation than vague hope, then that changes things; it can make it a canny move to double even when the percentages are less than optimal.