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Backgammon and variants.

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19. Februarie 2008, 05:55:56
playBunny 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
alanback: But of course.


Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply for 12 plies, 0-ply thereafter
# .. Move ......... Equity . (Diff) .... Win ... WinG .. WinBg ---- Lose .. LoseG . LoseBg
1 .. bar/19*/15 ... +0.976 ............ 98.8% .. 66.1% ... 4.2% --- 1.2% ... 0.0% ... 0.0%
2 .. bar/15 ....... +0.954 (-0.022) ... 97.7% .. 43.9% ... 1.1% --- 2.3% ... 0.0% ... 0.0%
Std Err ............ 0.001 ............. 0.1% ... 0.6% ... 0.4% --- 0.1% ... 0.0% ... 0.0%

And if the move is bar/15 followed by 42: 12/10*/6 the chances drop:

Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply for 12 plies, 0-ply thereafter
# .. Move ......... Equity . (Diff) .... Win ... WinG .. WinBg ---- Lose .. LoseG . LoseBg
1 .. 12/10*/6 ..... -0.930 (-0.046) .... 3.5% .. 0.0% ... 0.0% --- 96.5% .. 27.1% ... 0.2%

19. Februarie 2008, 07:08:41
alanback 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
playBunny:  If I read that right, the hit is better?  Cool, thanks.

19. Februarie 2008, 10:08:58
Hrqls 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
playBunny & alanback & czuch: thanks! after reading your comments you had me convinced that i should have jumped over instead of hit .. i wasnt sure what to do when i made the move but i hit the checked just because i like to hit and to go for gammon although it might make no sense .. and even if i hit the checker and was hit back again later .. it might just prolong the game a little more ... i thought

so that was my reasoning for hitting .. quite impressive eh .. very well thought and analyzed ;)

but gnu proved me right!!!!!!!!
(ok gnu would have made the same more ;) ... i wouldnt expect that after your comments .. its something i will keep in mind ..)

can we also find in the roll out of gnu why hitting was better ?
(i am not used to reading gnu roll outs)

19. Februarie 2008, 18:03:16
alanback 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
Hrqls:  Gnu doesn't give explanations!  All it can tell you is (according to its algorithms) which move produces the most wins ... assuming both players play like gnu.  PlayBunny's explanation is as good as you are going to find.

19. Februarie 2008, 18:06:33
Hrqls 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
alanback: ok thanks :)
now that you know gnu's rollout .. how would you personally move ?

(i sometimes wonder why some experts advice a certain course .. and when i try to play that way i will fail because i dont make the correct followup moves .. so its not always wise for me to follow gnu's advice :))

19. Februarie 2008, 20:01:04
grenv 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
Hrqls: lol. In this case that isn't an issue since every move you make is essentially forced (except for whether to hit, but assume yes in most cases and you should be fine).

20. Februarie 2008, 09:40:47
Hrqls 
Subiectul: Re: hit or run ?
Hrqls: it might be not wise to hit later one if i get sent back all the time and my opponent has moved a bit further

or it might be wiser to hit just then

ah well ... since i started playing hypergammon i hit most of the time :)

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