Användarnamn: Lösenord:
Registrering av Ny Användare
Moderator: SueQ , coan.net 
 Backgammon

Backgammon and variants.

Backgammon Links


Förteckning över diskussionsforum
Läge: Alla kan skriva
Söka bland inlägg:  

4. januari 2009, 12:58:22
Constellation36 
Ämne: Re:
coan.net: Too bad none of the tips could have helped me out in this game: Fevga (Albaowl vs. coan.net)

Oh my goodness!!!!!!!! That is the definition of "bad luck".

By calculating only your rolls(as calculating opponents rolls is a bit more tiresome and i'm lazy) the probability NOT to enter opponents board is:
0.047% or 1 out of 2115.

So the probability to enter opponents home(so you will be free to play later) is 99.95% or 2114 out of 2115.

And notice that the above do not take into account opponent's rolls, a thing that would actually increase your probabilities to enter.

So it's like you had a bag with 2114 white balls and only 1 red ball and you have chosen the red ball!
And note again that i have not taken into consideration the opponent's rolls that i guess would increase this probability to enter by a factor of 10(21139 out of 21140).

So many years i'm playing this game only once i have faced this situation and i was in the bright side, which means i forced my opponent not to be able to play at all.
And now i see it again.

Also notice what i've said a few lines before in this topic. In Greece we allow doubles in the starting roll for Fevga in contrast with what Brainking does. So there are 5 more cases(22,33,44,55,66) where one can advance high enough to enter opponents home or anyway to take the 12-point which is the key to avoid such position as then he will always have the change to so this can't happen.
So once again i will repeat that it is better if doubles will be allowed in the starting roll.

Of course what happened to you is extremely rare(writing a Monte Carlo based program to play millions of random rolls would easily show how exactly are the odds) and by allowing starting roll doubles becomes even more rare.

Datum och tid
Vänner online
Favoritforum
Vängrupper
Dagens tips
Copyright © 2002 - 2024 Filip Rachunek, all rights reserved.
Tillbaka till sidans början