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25. september 2007, 01:45:03

Thad

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Ämne: Dice outcomes

Does Fencer keep a record of the dice rolls? If not, perhaps he could. If so, does he publish them? It would be interesting to run some statistical analysis on them to see how random they are.

If you think about how many games have been played here, the odds might actually be pretty good for someone to have thrown 1-1, 1-1, 1-1 by now like Andersp did. It probably should have (and probably has) occurred several times.

It seems to me like more doubles are rolled near the ends of many of my games. I'm assuming that it just looks like that to me, though.

25. september 2007, 01:57:06

alanback

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Ämne: Re: Dice outcomes

Thad: I once did some statistical analysis on the dice rolls at ItsYourTurn because I was convinced they were skewed. I had no luck proving this, as it turned out that the distribution of rolls was pretty close to random, with some slight bias for or against particular results. I imagine you would find the same here. I don't recall whether I did a systematic study of consecutive doubles. I still have the database around somewhere.

25. september 2007, 02:10:31

Czuch

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Ämne: Re: Dice outcomes

Thad: It seems to me like more doubles are rolled near the ends of many of my games. I

LOL... I thought the same sometimes. I always seem to get doubles on my last turn when I dont need it

25. september 2007, 02:14:36

alanback

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Ämne: Re: Dice outcomes

Ändrat av alanback (25. september 2007, 02:15:46)

Czuch Czuckers: Statistically, it seems that a double is relatively more likely to be the last roll of a game than a roll that is not a double. That is, for example, double 2 will end more games (or at least more than half as many) than 5-3. This is just an impression.

25. september 2007, 02:19:06

Czuch

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Ämne: Re: Dice outcomes

alanback: Thats because doubles can end games with one, two, three, or four pieces remaining.

Where non doubles can only end a game with one or two pieces remaining.

25. september 2007, 02:42:08

alanback

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Ämne: Re: Dice outcomes

Czuch Czuckers: Exactly. Also, doubles on the average contain more pipcount than non-doubles, so there are more positions that can be ended by a double.