Czuch:

I think Universal Eyes and Czuch, you are missing the point of Nothingnesses post. Now, it's likely that by using "Never" he is being too strict, but the point is this: If you always play against the odds, SOMETIMES you will win. MOST OF THE TIME, you will lose.

So, breaking down his hand analysis into a hypothetical situation, let's say you're in a hand, and you're opponent has a pair of Aces. You have a shot at a backdoor flush. (Two Diamonds must come in a row to make a flush). He goes all-in. Do you call??

Now, 1 in about 16 times, you will make your flush. Some of the other times, you will catch two pair. But MOST OF THE TIME, you will lose. That makes this a losing play, and in the long run, making such calls will lose you money.

I made the situation more drastic to illustrate the point (I think) Nothingness was making. If you always play against the odds, you will lose money. If you always play the odds, you will win money.

The tough part comes in not knowing exactly what the odds are!!!!! Some nice guesswork tends to help out nicely, but there I cannot help you...

-Zak