Any such method used in this game is a strategy, not a formula.
As anything in game theory, it is statistical in nature, not deterministic.
In plain language, the claim is not that a player who uses a fixed strategy could win any pond he enters, such a claim is obviously nonsense, and Ed never made such a claim. The claim is that entering a sufficient number of ponds he'd win more than he would if he plays only by guesses, regular instict, tea leaves or whatever.
And I agree with Andre, why bother? it's only a game. But VERY addictive!