Kunoichi: It happens.

My personal opinion - for the first few rounds, to possible save 10-20 points - there is no point in bidding too low. That is if I think the low bids will be between 70-80, I will bid probable closer to 100. Again, 10-20 points in my opinion is not that important. Much more important to be around at the end. (That is in later rounds, there will be bids with over 1,000 between them - so what is 10-20 points? not much)

For new users, some general tips (everyone plays different so feel free to follow or ignore):

Check recent ponds - see what bids fell in the first few rounds - make sure you are higher then that.

Keep an eye out for players whose membership drops to pawn status. After they chance to a pawn, they can no longer bid - so their last bid will continue until they fall.

Keep an eye out for the lowest player. If they only have 1 point left, it is funny to still see people bid 1,000+, since they would just need to bid 2 to stay in.

The 500 point bonus can be good - BUT if you have to bid more then 500 points higher then what you normally bid - they it is not really very good. (Except for the times when your goal is to keep others from getting it.)