coan.net: Too bad none of the tips could have helped me out in this game: Fevga (Albaowl vs. coan.net)
Oh my goodness!!!!!!!! That is the definition of "bad luck".
By calculating only your rolls(as calculating opponents rolls is a bit more tiresome and i'm lazy) the probability NOT to enter opponents board is: 0.047% or 1 out of 2115.
So the probability to enter opponents home(so you will be free to play later) is 99.95% or 2114 out of 2115.
And notice that the above do not take into account opponent's rolls, a thing that would actually increase your probabilities to enter.
So it's like you had a bag with 2114 white balls and only 1 red ball and you have chosen the red ball! And note again that i have not taken into consideration the opponent's rolls that i guess would increase this probability to enter by a factor of 10(21139 out of 21140).
So many years i'm playing this game only once i have faced this situation and i was in the bright side, which means i forced my opponent not to be able to play at all. And now i see it again.
Also notice what i've said a few lines before in this topic. In Greece we allow doubles in the starting roll for Fevga in contrast with what Brainking does. So there are 5 more cases(22,33,44,55,66) where one can advance high enough to enter opponents home or anyway to take the 12-point which is the key to avoid such position as then he will always have the change to so this can't happen. So once again i will repeat that it is better if doubles will be allowed in the starting roll.
Of course what happened to you is extremely rare(writing a Monte Carlo based program to play millions of random rolls would easily show how exactly are the odds) and by allowing starting roll doubles becomes even more rare.