Czuch:


Just after Sue's 3-3 you had a 91% chance.
When you then had to leave a blot it went down to 84.5%.
When she hit the blot it went down to 60.3%.
At the point just before Sue started bearing off it was back up to 70.9%.
After her first bearoff and a gap opened it was 71.6%.
After you got your man back in it was 74.3%.
When she hit you again it dropped to 66.4%.
By the time you'd finished dancing and got back in it was a mere 23.5%.