Zorro: Well, you definitely can win this pond. Your bet now should not be too low since you would fall in the pond but also not too high because you are about 800 points behind the leader and you need to gather these points somewhere. So, your goal in the upcoming round should be to bet as low as possible in order to bet at least 1300 points less than the leader. The other way to win is to let the leader fall in the pond, of course (that's the easier one, LOL).